Garbage in, garbage out

Much of the foundation for the U.N.’s claims about man-made global warming come from the computer models employed by their own climate panel, the IPCC. But what if the computer models are wrong? What if in fact some of the key variables used in their climate prediction software were grossly overstated?  The Science and Public Policy Institute brings us a report that makes just such an assertion:

WASHINGTON (7-15-08 ) – Mathematical proof that there is no “climate crisis” appears today in a major, peer-reviewed paper in Physics and Society, a learned journal of the 10,000-strong American Physical Society, SPPI reports.
Christopher Monckton, who once advised Margaret Thatcher, demonstrates via 30 equations that computer models used by the UN’s climate panel (IPCC) were pre-programmed with overstated values for the three variables whose product is “climate sensitivity” (temperature increase in response to greenhouse-gas increase), resulting in a 500-2000% overstatement of CO2’s effect on temperature in the IPCC’s latest climate assessment report, published in 2007.

Climate Sensitivity Reconsidered [http://www.aps.org/units/fps/newsletters/200807/index.cfm] demonstrates that later this century a doubling of the concentration of CO2 compared with pre-industrial levels will increase global mean surface temperature not by the 6 °F predicted by the IPCC but, harmlessly, by little more than 1 °F.

That’s right folks, even a computer can be wrong if you program the wrong data into it. Here are some other key points made in Monckton’s paper:

  • The IPCC’s 2007 climate summary overstated CO2’s impact on temperature by 500-2000%;
  • CO2 enrichment will add little more than 1 °F (0.6 °C) to global mean surface temperature by 2100;
  • Not one of the three key variables whose product is climate sensitivity can be measured directly;
  • The IPCC’s values for these key variables are taken from only four published papers, not 2,500;
  • The IPCC’s values for each of the three variables, and hence for climate sensitivity, are overstated;
  • “Global warming” halted ten years ago, and surface temperature has been falling for seven years;
  • Not one of the computer models relied upon by the IPCC predicted so long and rapid a cooling;
  • The IPCC inserted a table into the scientists’ draft, overstating the effect of ice-melt by 1000%;
  • It was proved 50 years ago that predicting climate more than two weeks ahead is impossible;
  • Mars, Jupiter, Neptune’s largest moon, and Pluto warmed at the same time as Earth warmed;
  • In the past 70 years the Sun was more active than at almost any other time in the past 11,400 years.

The SPPI has provacatively titled their new article Proved: There is no climate crisis. Whether or not you agree with that claim, hopefully you will at least concede that the debate — contrary to what Al Gore and his pals at the U.N. like to insist — is definitely NOT over.


2 Comments so far
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I’m not a scientist, but I did hear that someone went swimming at the North Pole last summer, resulting in Russia sending a boat to put a flag on the sea bottom.

Are you saying that this is of no significance?

Comment by catchthevision

It’s a little humorous to me that they would do that but I don’t think it’s of much significance politically or otherwise. My understanding is that they had to plow through ice for a week to accomplish this feat — pretty impressive actually.

But no I don’t think any amount of Russian flags on the seabed are going to refute the points made here by the SPPI. As I said in my post I think their arguments are at least valid enough to keep the debate open.

Comment by hopperbach

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