hopperbach


Darn those numbers
June 5, 08, 4:24 pm
Filed under: economy, jobless claims, recession | Tags: , ,

Last week’s jobless data not as bad as expected… again. Holy harbinger of hope, Batman! When is this freefall going to end?

Fear not though, this time “experts” and media pessimists are pinning the decline on that tricky little Memorial Day holiday. Um.. so they couldn’t factor that in when they were making their forecasts?: Not according to Bloomberg:

The number of Americans filing first- time jobless claims unexpectedly fell last week, possibly reflecting the closure of government offices for the Memorial Day holiday.

Initial jobless claims decreased by 18,000 to 357,000 in the week that ended May 31, the lowest level in more than a month, the Labor Department said today in Washington. While the figures are adjusted for seasonal variations, holidays make it more difficult for Labor to estimate the changes.

Really? So the people who normally would have filed on Monday couldn’t just file on.. y’know.. Tuesday? And then they didn’t file for the rest of the week? They just gave up and decided not to file at all? I’m learning new things here…

The level of claims indicates the job market is weakening without collapsing as deteriorating demand has led employers to pull back on hiring rather than carry out mass firings of the scale seen in past recessions. Rising joblessness, falling home values and higher fuel costs raise the risk that consumer spending will falter.

Ahhh, now we get to the real meat of the matter- there’s just not enough FIRING going on out there! How are we gonna have a TRUE RECESSION when employers aren’t stepping up to the plate and FIRING? This sure puts a damper on things.

Of course, last time an unexpected decline in jobless rates occurred the press was able to dismiss the good news by citing the 4-week moving averagea “more reliable guide to underlying labor trends” as Reuters called it.

But this time…

The four-week moving average, a less volatile measure, fell to 368,500 from 371,250, today’s report showed.

Ouch. Things just aren’t going well for the media messengers of monetary meltdown lately. Oh well, they still have their health.

Story here:

U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Fell to 357,000 Last Week

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